SOYBEANS Comments

Post 790 of 799

Another choppy session with values finishing near unchanged at the bell. Old crop tightness was highlighted by the NOPA figures again. Despite values coming in under the trade guess of 125.2, the 120.11 mln bu crushed still puts the pace 5% over last year and that contrasts the USDA’s 4% lower year over year projection. There will have to be more slowing in order to make the 1635 crush projected by the USDA. Oil stocks were down but within trade estimates at 2638 mln lbs. The market did not know what do to with this figure so we saw sharp moves either projection but then rumors of imported soybeans are making their rounds again which calms the fair-weather bull. No small cargo is going to solve the problems of an upper Midwest crusher but the math works currently so it unduly influences intraday trade. The situation is still very tight and the work will have to done by the spreads as SX13 will set the flat price level the SN13 will have to trade against to delay/destroy/ration demand.

Brazil still wrestling with port strikes that aggravate the herculean task of record soybean exports this year. Port strikers do not like the moves or statements being made by the legislators about modernizing the ports. Export sales report is out tomorrow with old crop soy sales estimated from 0 to 100 tmt sold, meal also 0-100, and Oil 5 to 15 tmt. Currently Soybean sales are all but 10 mln bushels short of the year’s commitments estimated by the USDA. The meal commitments are about 400 tmt away from the USDA’s full year estimate as well. Not much can be tolerated for sales of meal either.

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