SOYBEANS: BETTER

Post 105 of 799

A decent bounce as we head toward the finish line of the insurance pricing on Friday. Currently, the price stands about $9.6675 with a C/S ratio on insurance at 2.315 not indicating a switch to beans off that pricing. However, input cost not dropping with NC corn values shows more chance that acreage shift could happen. A prolonged winter and a wet spring are more likely at this point to move acreage to beans than the pricing. Crush and exports will drive the car for the next month or two as we transition to a more domestic trade when S.A. gets cranking on exports. That may be three months yet though because a slower than expected harvest and an expanding trucking strike are keeping U.S. beans flowing to China indicated by another good export inspections report yesterday. Thursday is first position day, so be out of longs prior to the close or risk taking delivery on Friday morning. March OI is 77K+ in beans, meal down to 42.4K, and oil standing at 38.9K liquidation has already moved along well. Look for better trade today as nearby demand, including basis, will keep beans hovering around $10. Beans: V-172,694/OI­683,045(-2,680) Meal: V-87,956/OI-366,072(-2,411) Oil: V-101,798/OI-376,436(-1,586)

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